Climate Adaptation Trust · Phased execution against the 200-year hazard arc

EPCR's planning sensitivity, made interactive

Three sliders model the central uncertainties: hazard onset velocity, real return on Trust principal, and decarbonization-mitigation success. The visualization shows annual draw, carbon-revenue inflow, and principal preservation across the 200-year horizon. Year-200 principal target: $5T+ for post-2229 contingency that no one alive in 2030 can forecast.

Externality Limiter Carbon Climate Adaptation Trust Two-Ledger Principle 200-year viz Project schedule Financial Stability Transportation

Planning sliders

Hazard onset velocityCentral

How quickly climate hazards reach federal-asset thresholds. Faster onset shifts spending earlier within each era.

Real return on principal4.00%

Inflation-adjusted return EPCR earns on Trust principal. Higher returns expand long-horizon capacity.

Decarbonization successCentral

How quickly carbon-fee revenue tapers as decarbonization succeeds. Higher mitigation = revenue declines faster (the one-time-chance framing).

Total 200-yr inflow

$41.6T

Carbon ≥ $160/ton + Methane Levy

Total 200-yr draw

$36.1T

EPCR-allocated under era envelopes

Peak principal

$20675.3T

Year 200 (≈ 2229)

Year-200 principal

$20675.3T

post-2229 contingency capacity

200-year flow + principal trajectory

Solid: principal under preservation. Dashed: annual draw. Light: annual carbon-revenue inflow. Era color bands distinguish the five phases.

Principal Annual draw Annual inflow

What each era funds, in priority order

Era 1 · Foundation

Years 1–10 · 2030–2039 · $8–$25B/yr

Capacity-build EPCR. Capture cheap wins. Map federal-asset risk. Establish governance that survives 200 years.

Era 2 · Acceleration

Years 11–25 · 2040–2054 · $30–$80B/yr

Major hardening of identified-risk public assets. Protect what is here before the next-magnitude event.

Era 3 · Major buildout

Years 26–75 · 2055–2104 · $80–$200B/yr

Peak adaptation buildout coincides with peak hazard onset. Coastal hardening, agricultural transition, grid reorganization.

Era 4 · Sea-level transition

Years 76–150 · 2105–2179 · $200–$350B/yr

1.5–3m sea-rise scenarios in mid-range projection. Federal-asset relocations. Inland water reorganization. Heat infrastructure scaled to occupied-zone shifts.

Era 5 · Preservation

Years 151–200 · 2180–2229 · $100–$200B/yr

Maintain prior buildout. Preserve principal against post-2229 regime nobody alive today can forecast. Tail-risk reserve grows.

200-year category mix

Sea-rise dominates Eras 3-4 as federal coastal assets reach relocation thresholds. Inland water + heat scale across the horizon. Tail-risk reserve protects against civilization-scale events.

Sea-level rise — public assets$8.5T · 38%

Concentrated Eras 3–4. Federal naval, court, hospital, port relocation.

Inland water — flood, drought, dams$4.0T · 18%

Mississippi System + Western water reorganization.

Heat — federal facilities + workers$2.5T · 11%

Federal building portfolio + worker safety + prison/VA/courthouse.

Wildfire — public-asset perimeters$1.8T · 8%

WUI defensive perimeters + national lab + Forest Service buildout.

Transportation routes — federal/Interstate$1.5T · 7%

I-95, I-10, rail elevation.

Grid + Black-Sky — dual-purpose$1.2T · 5%

HVDC, substation hardening, transformer cache, Black-Sky reserve.

Tail-risk reserve — civilization-scale$1.0T · 5%

Cascadia, civilization-scale events, post-2229 unknowns.

Agriculture — research + soil + aquifer$0.8T · 4%

ARS climate-shift, federal land replanting, no private subsidies.

Public health — vector + heat surveillance$0.5T · 2%

CDC vector-borne, heat-illness response infrastructure.

EPCR operations + research$0.2T · 1%

Permanent capability.