Dynamic Fiscal Model

All projections are in nominal dollars, grown at 4% per year (CBO central path: 1.8% real GDP + 2.2% CPI-U). Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035 (January 2025). Long-run extrapolation 2036–2079 holds the same 4% nominal growth, consistent with CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 (March 2025). Use the “% GDP” toggle above to remove the nominal-dollar drift.

Small revenue streams are combined into “Other streams”; transition surcharges appear in 2030–2034 and sunset; the Employer Parity Surcharge passes through to host communities (targeted, not ring-fenced). Spending carries the legacy Medicare/Medicaid + standup dual-run line through the transition (sunsetting as absorption completes) — the transition years cost more than the status quo, so the chart runs a deficit through the early 2030s and crosses into surplus on the same schedule as the detail model. See the technical notes on /scoring/detail for model hypotheses.