Real-World Tax Scenarios
Eight profiles — six public figures and two composites — compared across three regimes: Current Law, the New American Accord, and Expatriation. How much does leaving actually save?
Key Findings
7 of 8 scenarios favor STAY — exit tax creates a $238M–$71B barrier that takes 2–15 years to break even.
The one EXIT case (Thiel) involves an individual who already holds NZ citizenship and has publicly sought to leave US jurisdiction.
The "Civilization Premium" works: US capital markets, courts, infrastructure, and talent are worth more than the tax differential in 7 of 8 cases.
The Taylor Swift MIXED case shows the one real vulnerability: high-earning creatives with globally portable careers face a 2-year break-even — but brand and fan-base retention is a material non-tax factor.
Mark-to-market exit tax is the structural key. Without it, break-even collapses to 0–2 years for several scenarios.
Current law effective rates range from 0.2% (Buffett) to 36% (LeBron) — a 180× spread. NAA compresses this to 2.1%–61%, a 29× spread.
Cumulative Tax Drag Over 20 Years
Starting wealth: $10M · Annual income: $500K · 7% annual growth. Shows total taxes paid under each regime.
Income figures sourced from public financial disclosures, SEC filings, court records, and credible press reporting (Forbes, Bloomberg Wealth, WSJ). Net worth estimates are as of late 2024.
NAA calculations apply the rate structures from the DNA vv21: TCL at 10.0% (employee share), unified income tax brackets, VAT at 9% net of pre-bate ($3,480/adult), and wealth levy tiers from $5M–$10M at 0.8% through $100M+ at 2.0%.
Exit tax modeled as 23.8% (top long-term capital gains + NIIT) mark-to-market on all unrealized gains as required under IRC §877A. Break-even calculated as: exit tax ÷ (annual NAA tax − annual offshore tax).
All figures are illustrative and based on simplified assumptions. Composite profiles are clearly labeled. This tool is for policy illustration — not tax advice.