The fifty-year promise

The Fiscal Model — Steady-State Year-10 (2040)

Revenue and obligation flows under Central anchors — payroll tax 28.0%, top rate 55.0%, VAT 13.5% + luxury supplement, Distributed Healthcare $6.30T central basis. Social Security 2.0 paid from General Fund; the Debt Sunset Governor moves the top income rate, the VAT and the payroll rate together to hold the projected debt-retirement date; Climate Adaptation Trust accumulates carbon-fee surplus above the household rebate cap. Hover any bar for details.

Gross Revenue
$15.36T
Rebates Returned
−$0.68T
Net Revenue
$14.68T
Obligations
$15.23T
Trust Deposits
$0.86T
Deployable (scored)
$1.10T/yr
Revenue Sources → $15.36T Gross
payroll tax (28%)$5.04T
Unified Income Tax (top 55%)$3.40T
Other streams (combined)$2.29T
Value-Added Tax (13.5% + luxury supplement)$1.60T
Carbon & Climate$1.28T
Corporate Tax$0.93T
Wealth & Estate$0.82T
Years 1–5 additionally carry the transition surcharges — 1.5% on gross receipts above $25M plus 2 points on the corporate book minimum, roughly $0.47T/yr — which sunset by Year 6 and so do not appear in this steady-state snapshot. The Employer Parity Surcharge (~$0.10T/yr) passes through to host communities and is shown in the targeted box at right.
Statutory Rebates → $0.68T Returned
VAT Pre-bate−$0.44T
Energy Stipend (Carbon)−$0.24T
Net Revenue$14.68T
On-Budget Obligations → $15.23T
Distributed Healthcare$6.30T
Social Security 2.0 (paid from GF)$2.27T
Other Programs$1.44T
Defense & Other Federal$1.20T
Debt service (Year 10)$2.72T
Infrastructure$0.68T
Children & Families$0.48T
Education & Skills$0.14T
Ring-Fenced Trust Deposits → $0.86T/yr
Climate Adaptation Trust (growing)$0.83T
Financial Stability Reserve$0.03T
Employer Parity Surcharge → host communities (targeted, not ring-fenced)$0.10T
Climate deposits shown are net of the Expert Panel's early-era draws (technical notes below). The Financial Stability Reserve accumulates from the ~$30B/yr systemic-risk levy toward its ~$200B target within about seven years, then holds — drawn only in systemic events.
Net Revenue − Obligations
$-0.55T
after Distributed Healthcare ($6.30T gross) + debt service ($2.72T) at Year 10
→
Deployable surplus after debt service (Central, scored)
$1.10T/yr
v11.0 Y10 canon. Debt retires within the 50-year corridor (Debt Sunset Governor-guaranteed)
Public Debt Trajectory — $40.5T → $0 within 50 years (live engine, Central scenario)
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2079
Transition hump peaks $78.8T in 2054Zero here is the general fund at zero — debt held by the public at zero, the trusts intact as sovereign wealth. The general ledger reaches zero earlier, when the debt falls to the balance of the two trusts (the General Fund borrowing from the two trusts, which is lending, not funding).
Our grandchildren will not inherit this debt — central (closes), optimistic (closes), stress beyond boundary (reported, does not close). Success is the central case closing; the Debt Sunset Governor holds the projected retirement date inside its automatic band.
▲ = the Debt Sunset Governor steps the top income rate, the VAT and the payroll rate up together (one step: +0.25pp top rate, +0.25pp VAT, +0.0625pp payroll) · ▼ = steps back down as the projected date comes in early. Automatic moves are limited to a total of +2.0pp on the top income rate, +2.0pp on the VAT and +0.5pp on the payroll rate from the launch rates; beyond that, Congress must act.
Stress, beyond boundary▲×4 ▼×2
Payroll peaks 29%, eases to 27.75%
Central▼×1
Payroll peaks 28%, eases to 27.75%
Optimistic▼×12
Payroll peaks 28%, eases to 25%
Automatic moves are limited to a total of +2.0pp on the top income rate, +2.0pp on the VAT and +0.5pp on the payroll rate from the launch rates, mirrored downward for relief; changes beyond the band require Congress. The stress case is a boundary — the deterioration in growth, health cost and the interest premium, after the launch rates are set, that the governor's 8 automatic steps still absorb.
Climate Adaptation Trust: Accumulates 100% of carbon-fee revenue above the household rebate cap — its sole source (the Methane Accountability and Reduction Levy routes to the General Fund). Ring-fenced; statutorily insulated from General Fund appropriation. Disbursed by the Expert Panel on Climate Resilience across the ~200-year arc of climate impacts — accumulating during the decarbonization window and drawn down to fund infrastructure mitigation (coastal defense, grid hardening, water resilience, wildfire hardening) as physical-climate damage materializes. One-time-chance framing: declining carbon use means revenue tapers as decarbonization succeeds; there will never be another opportunity to capitalize a trust of this scale from carbon revenue.
Want to test these numbers under different assumptions?
Fiscal Scoring renders the same flows as a live diagram: revenue → General Fund → expenditures → surplus, with sliders for payroll tax, top rate, VAT, carbon, and corporate. The bars on this page are the anchor case; Scoring lets you move off it.
Fiscal Scoring →
Technical notes
  1. Line items are Year-10 central workbook anchors, rounded independently — column arithmetic nets $-1.41T before the unscored contingency reserve and rounding; the scored central deployable balance is $1.10T/yr. The debt trajectory renders live from the fiscal engine, whose intermediate years were reconciled to the scored endpoints on 2026-07-02 (debt-recursion fix; SS carve-out deletion per v10.5 canon; converted taxes blend from current-law baselines because rates are Day-1 effective; an explicit transition-cost line, ~$0.5T Year 1 tapering to zero by Year 8, carries dual-running administration and systems buildout).
  2. The governor strip above renders the governor-ON rate paths (▲/▼ step counts). The live engine also runs governor-ON (the published mode). Its ▲ markers are residual-stress years — years in which the projected deployable balance four years out runs negative even after the coupled steps already set — not the governor's trigger, which is the projected retirement date: under current calibration the stress case marks 56 of 60 projected years, Central 21, Optimistic 5.
  3. The engine's residual calibration multipliers are 1.002–1.031 after the v10.6 explicit-streams breakout (transition surcharges, Land-Value Surcharge, wealth-transfer settlement, and combined minor streams are engine lines, no longer folded into an aggregate factor).
  4. Climate Adaptation Trust expenditures follow a hypothesized Expert Panel schedule (era-discipline draws: roughly $8–25B/yr in the first decade, rising through the buildout decades) — a modeling hypothesis, not a statutory schedule; the Panel sets actual disbursements.
  5. Financial Stability Reserve modeling assumes the ~$30B/yr systemic-risk levy accumulates to a ~$200B target and is drawn only in systemic events; draw size and refill are hypothesized for illustration.
  6. Interest on the debt carries executed feedback: 3bp on the marginal rate per point of debt-to-GDP above the scenario's own 2030 ratio, symmetric, bounded at ±200bp. The +50bp flat rate premium remains a stress, not the published path.
  7. VAT standard rate steps 5 / 8 / 11 / 13.5% over Years 1–4, with the marginal-excess luxury supplement (6% of the amount above per-category indexed floors) live from Year 1; the transition surcharges carry the early window and sunset by Year 6. Prebate envelope ≈ $436B/yr, paid per person (about $128/adult + $46/child monthly).
  8. Sources: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (ssa.gov/oact/tr/2026); CMS National Health Expenditure 2024; CBO baseline projections; NAA Fiscal Projection workbook (v10 series).
Architecture version: v11.0
Scoring version: v11.0 — executed score, audit incomplete (rerun 2026-09-07)
Engine source: computeProjection (governor-ON, statutory Debt Sunset Governor)