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The fifty-year promise

The Fiscal Model — Steady-State Year-10 (2040)

Revenue and obligation flows under Central anchors — payroll tax 28% (corridor 25.0–29.0%), top rate 52% (corridor 49.0–53.0%), VAT 10% + luxury supplement, Distributed Healthcare $5.90T central basis. Social Security 2.0 paid from General Fund; the Debt Sunset Governor auto-adjusts payroll tax + top rate to guarantee 50-year debt retirement; Climate Adaptation Trust accumulates carbon-fee surplus above the household rebate cap. Hover any bar for details.

Gross Revenue
$15.36T
Rebates Returned
−$0.60T
Net Revenue
$14.76T
Obligations
$13.49T
Trust Deposits
$0.86T
Deployable (scored)
$0.79T/yr
Revenue Sources → $15.36T Gross
payroll tax (28%)$5.04T
Unified Income Tax (top 52%)$3.40T
Other streams (combined)$2.29T
Value-Added Tax (10% + luxury supplement)$1.60T
Carbon & Climate$1.28T
Corporate Tax$0.93T
Wealth & Estate$0.82T
Years 1–5 additionally carry the transition surcharges — 1.5% on gross receipts above $25M plus 2 points on the corporate book minimum, roughly $0.47T/yr — which sunset by Year 6 and so do not appear in this steady-state snapshot. The Employer Parity Surcharge (~$0.10T/yr) passes through to host communities and is shown in the targeted box at right.
Statutory Rebates → $0.60T Returned
VAT Pre-bate−$0.36T
Energy Stipend (Carbon)−$0.24T
Net Revenue$14.76T
On-Budget Obligations → $13.49T
Distributed Healthcare$5.90T
Social Security 2.0 (paid from GF)$2.27T
Other Programs$1.44T
Defense & Other Federal$1.20T
Debt service (Year 10)$1.38T
Infrastructure$0.68T
Children & Families$0.48T
Education & Skills$0.14T
Ring-Fenced Trust Deposits → $0.86T/yr
Climate Adaptation Trust (growing)$0.83T
Financial Stability Reserve$0.03T
Employer Parity Surcharge → host communities (targeted, not ring-fenced)$0.10T
Climate deposits shown are net of the Expert Panel's early-era draws (technical notes below). The Financial Stability Reserve accumulates from the ~$30B/yr systemic-risk levy toward its ~$200B target within about seven years, then holds — drawn only in systemic events.
Net Revenue − Obligations
$1.27T
after Distributed Healthcare ($5.90T gross) + debt service ($1.38T) at Year 10
→
Deployable surplus (Central, scored)
$0.79T/yr
v10.8 Y10 canon. Debt retires within the 50-year corridor (Debt Sunset Governor-guaranteed)
Public Debt Trajectory — $29.5T → $0 within 50 years (live engine, Central scenario)
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2052
Transition hump peaks $33.1T in 2034Central retires 2052 · Debt Sunset guarantees ≤50 yrs in every scenario
▲ = Debt Sunset Governor steps payroll and top rate up +0.25pp (coupled) · ▼ = steps back down as pressure eases. Hard-capped at the statutory corridors (payroll 25.0–29.0%, top rate 49.0–53.0%).
Conservative▲×4 ▼×2
Debt retires 2079 · payroll peaks 29% (the corridor ceiling), eases to 27.75%
Central▼×1
Debt retires 2079 · payroll peaks 28%, eases to 27.75%
Optimistic▼×12
Debt retires 2052 · payroll peaks 28%, eases to 25%
The governor can reach the corridor ceiling but never breach it; changes beyond the corridor require Congress. Under Conservative funding it reaches the ceiling by ~2045 and holds until pressure eases.
Climate Adaptation Trust: Accumulates 100% of carbon-fee revenue above the household rebate cap — its sole source (the Methane Accountability and Reduction Levy routes to the General Fund). Ring-fenced; statutorily insulated from General Fund appropriation. Disbursed by the Expert Panel on Climate Resilience across the ~200-year arc of climate impacts — accumulating during the decarbonization window and drawn down to fund infrastructure mitigation (coastal defense, grid hardening, water resilience, wildfire hardening) as physical-climate damage materializes. One-time-chance framing: declining carbon use means revenue tapers as decarbonization succeeds; there will never be another opportunity to capitalize a trust of this scale from carbon revenue.
Want to test these numbers under different assumptions?
Fiscal Scoring renders the same flows as a live diagram: revenue → General Fund → expenditures → surplus, with sliders for payroll tax, top rate, VAT, carbon, and corporate. The bars on this page are the v10.2 anchor case; Scoring lets you move off it.
Fiscal Scoring →
Technical notes
  1. Line items are Year-10 central workbook anchors, rounded independently — column arithmetic nets $0.41T before the unscored contingency reserve and rounding; the scored central deployable balance is $0.79T/yr. The debt trajectory renders live from the fiscal engine, whose intermediate years were reconciled to the scored endpoints on 2026-07-02 (debt-recursion fix; SS carve-out deletion per v10.5 canon; converted taxes blend from current-law baselines because rates are Day-1 effective; an explicit transition-cost line, ~$0.5T Year 1 tapering to zero by Year 8, carries dual-running administration and systems buildout).
  2. The governor strip above renders the workbook's governor-ON rate paths (canonical ▲/▼ step counts). The live engine also runs governor-ON (the published mode); its statutory detection rule (projected Year N+4 balance below zero) marks residual stress years the workbook rate path is absorbing: under current calibration, Conservative marks 3 of 60 projected years — meaning near-continuous upward pressure that the corridor ceiling absorbs — Central in 1 early transition years, Optimistic in 0.
  3. The engine's residual calibration multipliers are 1.002–1.031 after the v10.6 explicit-streams breakout (transition surcharges, Land-Value Surcharge, wealth-transfer settlement, and combined minor streams are engine lines, no longer folded into an aggregate factor).
  4. Climate Adaptation Trust expenditures follow a hypothesized Expert Panel schedule (era-discipline draws: roughly $8–25B/yr in the first decade, rising through the buildout decades) — a modeling hypothesis, not a statutory schedule; the Panel sets actual disbursements.
  5. Financial Stability Reserve modeling assumes the ~$30B/yr systemic-risk levy accumulates to a ~$200B target and is drawn only in systemic events; draw size and refill are hypothesized for illustration.
  6. VAT is luxury-first: the marginal-excess supplement (5% of the amount above per-category floors) collects ≈$45–55B in Year 1 (fully rebated through the prebate) while the standard rate steps 0/2.5/5/7.5/10% over Years 1–5; the transition surcharges carry the early window and sunset by Year 6. Prebate envelope ≈ $362B/yr ($100/adult + $50/child monthly).
  7. Sources: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report (ssa.gov/oact/tr/2026); CMS National Health Expenditure 2024; CBO baseline projections; NAA Fiscal Projection workbook (v10 series).