The Fifty-Year Fiscal Promise

Version: v10 · Canonical source: naa_canonical_parameters_v10.md

Framing

The Accord retires the federal debt within 50 years. This is an architectural guarantee, not a forecast dependent on favorable conditions. The Debt Sunset macrogovernor automatically adjusts payroll tax and top income tax rates together, within statutory corridors, whenever the Year N+4 fiscal projection drifts off target.

The canonical scenarios

Conservative scenario — same $5,900B Distributed Healthcare basis, with revenue stressed below central through the transition (no offsetting multiplier). Debt Sunset steps rates to the corridor ceiling (payroll 29.00%; top rate 53.00%) and holds until pressure eases. Debt retires 2079 — inside the 50-year corridor.

Central scenario — Distributed Healthcare basis $5,900B. Debt Sunset mostly inactive. payroll tax near 28.00%; top rate near 52.00%. Debt retires approximately 2079 (Year 50, counting 2030 as Year 1).

Optimistic scenario — Distributed Healthcare basis $5,550B. Debt Sunset steps downward to the corridor floor (payroll 25.00%; top rate 49.00%). Debt retires approximately 2052.

The architectural lock

In every scenario, debt retires within 50 years. The difference is what tax burden households bore along the way. Debt Sunset's trigger is cause-agnostic — it responds to projected fiscal drift regardless of source.

Key parameters

Debt retirement target: within 50 years (all scenarios)

payroll tax corridor: 25.00% – 29.00%

Top rate corridor: 49.00% – 53.00% (coupled 1:1 with payroll tax)

Governor step size: 0.25pp per trigger, coupled

Trigger (up): Year N+4 projected deployable balance < $0

Trigger (down): Year N+4 projected > $1.5T for 3 consecutive years