Methodology v10.10

Until July 2026, the model's estate-and-wealth revenue used the tax base the IRS can currently see — about $9T of reported wealth above the $10M threshold. The Accord's registry (annual filings with agreed valuations) makes the actual base collectible, and the actual base — from Federal Reserve household data — is four to five times larger (~$50T). In v10.10 we replaced every hand-seeded wealth figure with a model computed from that base: who holds what, who dies when, what the top-up mechanics collect. Result: wealth-transfer revenue at Year 10 is ~$734B/yr, not the ~$164B previously booked.

Skeptical of the registry? The conservative grading toggle re-runs the model at 1× or 2× the IRS-visible base (wealth_base_grading = 0.25 / 0.5); a constitutional-injunction scenario (prepayment enjoined Years 1–5, severability fallback active) is also scored (prepayment_enjoined_years = 5). See /constitutional-memo.

Superseded in part. The Year-10 balance and retirement figures this entry originally quoted were computed before the healthcare gross/net correction of August 2026 and before the calibration-boundary repair. The wealth-base rebuild described above stands; the downstream totals it reported do not. Current figures are in v10.16.