{ "_readme": [ "NAA replication package — regenerated at every build from lib/fiscal-engine.ts.", "To reproduce the headline table: clone github.com/fwhersman/naa-website,", "npm install, then `npx tsx scripts/generate-derived-fiscal.ts`. The", "scenarioHeadlines block below must match your output exactly.", "Engine: lib/fiscal-engine.ts (50-year projection, Debt Sunset Governor ON).", "All policy parameters: lib/config.ts (CFG). Calibration + phase curves:", "data/fiscal-v91.ts. Guards: scripts/reconcile-fiscal.ts fails the build", "if canon and engine drift." ], "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T19:24:25.845Z", "canonVersion": "v10.10", "headlineTable": { "y10Decomposition": { "year": 2039, "unifiedB": 12158, "obligatedB": 8755, "debtServiceB": 1384, "passThroughB": 413, "deployableB": 1606 }, "scenarioHeadlines": { "conservative": { "year10B": 1164, "retirementYear": 2054, "peakDebtB": 36489, "peakDebtYear": 2036 }, "central": { "year10B": 1606, "retirementYear": 2052, "peakDebtB": 33098, "peakDebtYear": 2034 }, "optimistic": { "year10B": 2734, "retirementYear": 2046, "peakDebtB": 30160, "peakDebtYear": 2031 } } }, "scenarioDefinitions": { "vhaeBasisByScenario": { "conservative": 5900, "central": 5900, "optimistic": 5550 }, "anchors": { "conservative": { "year10BalanceB": 1164, "retirementYear": 2054, "peakDebtB": 36489, "peakDebtYear": 2036 }, "central": { "year10BalanceB": 1606, "retirementYear": 2052, "peakDebtB": 33098, "peakDebtYear": 2034 }, "optimistic": { "year10BalanceB": 2734, "retirementYear": 2046, "peakDebtB": 30160, "peakDebtYear": 2031 } }, "governor": "on — published mode couples payroll + top-rate 0.25pp steps inside the corridors" }, "engineAssumptions": { "calibration": { "scenarioRevSpread": 0.079, "spreadTaperStartYi": 3, "spreadTaperEndYi": 11, "spreadTaperFloorFrac": 0, "scenarioGdpAddSpread": 0.004, "scenarioCpiAddSpread": 0.003, "prebateEnvelopeV106B": 362, "ssCarveoutWageShare": 0.62, "baselineFica2030B": 1900, "baselineIncome2030B": 2900, "transitionCostPeakB": 500, "prepaymentExcessShareByBracket": [ 0.35, 0.25, 0.15, 0.25 ], "unscoredReserveFracGdp": 0.0013, "defensePctGdp": 0.029, "nondefDiscretionaryPctGdp": 0.025, "ssBenefitsBaseB": 2000, "ssBenefitsDemographicGrowth": 0.025, "vhaeCaptureStreams2039B": { "medicare": 2200, "medicaidFederal": 1400, "otherFederal": 400 }, "vhaeFoldSchedule": { "medicare": [ 0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.85, 1 ], "medicaidFederal": [ 0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.85, 1 ], "otherFederal": [ 0.3, 0.7, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "otherMandatoryBaselineB": 800, "revenueCalibrationMult": 0.7806, "scenarioRevenueCalibrationMult": { "conservative": 0.7806, "central": 0.7806, "optimistic": 0.8005 }, "obligationCalibrationMult": 1, "obligationGrowthLateYearsPerYr": 0, "climateTrustBalanceContributionMult": 0, "climateTrustDisbursementCapB": 130, "revenueGrowthRatePost2040": 0.02982, "obligationGrowthRates": { "uca": 0.005, "vhae": 0.035, "communityRails": 0, "infrastructure": -0.02, "infrastructureFloor": 0.4, "dignityFloor": 0.015, "legacyStrip": 0 }, "scenarioInterestPath": { "conservative": { "2030": 0.045, "2032": 0.046, "2035": 0.044, "2040": 0.04, "2045": 0.036, "2050": 0.033, "2060": 0.032, "2080": 0.032 }, "central": { "2030": 0.045, "2032": 0.048, "2035": 0.043, "2040": 0.038, "2045": 0.034, "2050": 0.032, "2060": 0.031, "2080": 0.031 }, "optimistic": { "2030": 0.045, "2032": 0.042, "2035": 0.038, "2040": 0.033, "2045": 0.029, "2050": 0.028, "2060": 0.028, "2080": 0.028 } } }, "phaseCurves": { "tcl": [ 0.7, 0.92, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "income": [ 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "vat": [ 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "prebate": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "wealth": [ 0.15, 0.4, 0.65, 0.85, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "uca": [ 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "vhae": [ 0.1, 0.3, 0.42, 0.61, 0.78, 0.92, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "rails": [ 0.11, 0.23, 0.41, 0.61, 0.79, 0.91, 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "dignity": [ 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "startYear": 2030 }, "canonicalParameters": { "version": "v10.10", "scoringVersion": "v10.10", "scoringPinNote": "Fiscal projections rerun against v10.10 inputs as of 2026-07-09. The wealth-transfer lines now derive from the registry-implied base model (DFA/SCF bands × band mortality × Model-3 top-up mechanics × two-layer compliance) — 4–5× the retired SOI-visible seed — lifting Year-10 central deployable to ~$1.5T and moving derived retirements to 2055/2053/2046 (conservative/central/optimistic), decades inside the published 50-year corridor. The post-2040 taper cannot re-pin the 2079 workbook anchor (documented stop); the offsets/rates decision is pending Bill's ruling — see DECISIONS-PENDING v10.10. Rates: estate 30/34/38 (top Debt-Sunset-adjustable); prepayment 0.80–2.00%; accession flat 5% executor-withheld with the accession stamp; GST derived (composite × 0.95 ≈ 39.0%); §2801/Option-B pegged to the estate top.", "timeline": { "enactment": 2029, "fiscalYear1": 2030 }, "tcl": { "total": 0.28, "employee": 0.105, "employer": 0.175, "selfEmployed": 0.28, "internalAllocation": "none" }, "ss": { "rateEmployee": 0.08, "rateEmployer": 0.08, "rateTotal": 0.16, "cap": 168600, "dignityFloorMonthly": 1150, "dignityFloorQualifyingYears": 30, "dignityFloorAnnualCostB": 13, "bendPoints": [ { "floor": 0, "ceiling": 1174, "rate": 0.9 }, { "floor": 1174, "ceiling": 3500, "rate": 0.28 }, { "floor": 3500, "ceiling": 7078, "rate": 0.22 }, { "floor": 7078, "ceiling": 10000, "rate": 0.1 }, { "floor": 10000, "ceiling": null, "rate": 0.05 } ], "babyBondsFunding": "General Fund", "trustFundDissolutionYear": 2034, "trustFundOpeningBalanceT": 2.56, "phaseIn": [ 0, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1 ] }, "retirement": { "defaultSaveRate": 0.08, "autoEnrolled": true, "withdrawalPenalty": 0, "postTax": true }, "debtSunset": { "active": true, "targetRetirementByYear": 2079, "targetRetirementYears": 50, "tclCorridorMin": 0.25, "tclCorridorMax": 0.29, "topRateCorridorMin": 0.49, "topRateCorridorMax": 0.53, "stepPp": 0.0025, "stepsDown": 6, "stepsUp": 4, "triggerYearFirstCheck": 6, "forwardProjectionYears": 4, "triggerUpThresholdT": 0, "triggerDownThresholdT": 1.5, "triggerDownConsecutive": 3, "dualLever": { "slipYearsPerTrigger": 1, "cumulativeSlipCapYears": 5, "perDecadeSlipLimit": 3, "sahmPauseSlipOnly": true, "surplusSymmetry": "date_recovery_before_rate_relief", "projectionScorer": "independent_published_methodology", "overridePath": "fast_track_joint_resolution" }, "guaranteeCorridorYears": 55, "maxUpwardAnnualB": 200, "maxDownwardAnnualB": 280 }, "income": { "topRate": 0.52, "capGainsConvergence": 0.52, "cgalCap": 10000000, "favoredRate": 0.238, "charitableDeductionCap": 10000 }, "wealth": { "prepaymentBrackets": [ [ 10000000, 50000000, 0.008 ], [ 50000000, 250000000, 0.01 ], [ 250000000, 1000000000, 0.015 ], [ 1000000000, null, 0.02 ] ], "topRate": 0.02, "overflowCreditsAccession": true, "overflowWaterfall": [ "capital_gains_at_death", "accession_tax", "refund_no_interest" ], "priorTransferCredit": { "maxReductionPct": 0.3, "fullCreditYears": 3, "zeroCreditYears": 10 }, "suspensionEnabled": true, "volatilityExcessTreatment": "excess_pays_cgt_then_accession_then_refund_no_interest", "severabilityFallback": "deemed_realization_at_death_plus_carryover_basis", "disclosure": { "windowMonths": 36, "opensAt": "enactment, retroactive to Jan 1 of the enactment year (2029)", "filingStagger": [ "Cohort 1 (months 1–6): financial accounts and listed instruments", "Cohort 2 (months 6–18): physical assets with market comparables (vehicles, bullion, listed-sale art)", "Cohort 3 (months 12–36): hard-to-value physical, private-business interests, petition-basis categories" ], "yearOne": { "discountOnBracketRate": 0.1, "backTax": false, "penalties": false, "windowMonths": 12, "lifetimeOnDisclosedAssets": true, "eligibleForLifetimeRate": "hard_to_discover_only" }, "yearTwo": { "rate": "applicable", "backTax": true, "penalties": false, "windowMonths": 12, "lifetimeOnDisclosedAssets": false }, "yearThree": { "rate": "applicable", "backTax": true, "penalties": false, "windowMonths": 12, "lifetimeOnDisclosedAssets": false }, "postWindow": { "rate": "applicable", "backTax": true, "penalties": true, "interest": true, "heirLiability": true, "penaltyMagnitude": "unspecified_by_design" }, "eligibleCategories": [ "Foreign bank accounts (FBAR-unfiled)", "Foreign brokerage accounts", "Foreign trusts unreported", "Foreign insurance with cash value", "Foreign privately-held business interests", "Foreign private equity (PFIC-noncompliant)", "Foreign hedge fund interests", "Foreign real estate", "Foreign-flagged yachts / aircraft / vehicles", "Privately-held art (no auction record)", "Auction-record art held 10+ years privately", "Physical precious metals (private storage)", "Watches / jewelry / wine / rare books", "Cryptocurrency cold storage (no US-exchange record)", "Petition: domestic interests below reporting threshold", "Petition: pre-FATCA specific-jurisdiction accounts", "Petition: other IRS-determined undetectable" ], "ineligibleCategories": [ "Domestic registered securities", "US real estate (titled)", "US business with EIN", "US-registered vehicles / yachts / aircraft", "US cryptocurrency exchange holdings", "US insurance with cash value", "K-1 partnership interests", "Registered private equity" ] }, "haro": { "mandateYears": 30, "whistleblowerBountyMaxPct": 0.4, "standardDamagesMultiplier": 2, "egregiousDamagesMultiplier": 3, "egregiousIndicatorsRequiredToElevate": 2, "criminalReferralThreshold": 10000000, "penaltyCap": null, "statute": "life_of_holder_plus_two_generations_of_heirs_in_rem_plus_estate", "egregiousIndicators": [ "Active concealment infrastructure (trusts, shells, nominees, layered foreign structures)", "Falsified documents (false valuations, backdated docs, fraudulent transfers)", "Pattern across 3+ eligible categories simultaneously", "Professionals engaged for concealment design", "Concealment continued post-notification" ] }, "heirLiability": { "generationsCovered": 2, "recoveryMode": "in_rem_plus_estate_reach", "recoveryCap": "value_of_inheritance_from_same_patriarchs_estate", "heirPersonalAssetsAtRisk": false, "heirInheritanceFromOtherEstatesAtRisk": false }, "estateBrackets": [ [ 10000000, 50000000, 0.3 ], [ 50000000, 250000000, 0.34 ], [ 250000000, null, 0.38 ] ], "accessionBrackets": [ [ 2000000, null, 0.05 ] ], "gstDiscountOnComposite": 0.05, "inboundDeemedAccession": { "enabled": true, "anchor": "former_us_person_estate", "formerUsPersonThreshold": { "years": 8, "of": 15 }, "gstAppliesOnSkip": true }, "exitTax": 0.38, "jointFilingRule": { "higherThresholdRequiresJointFiling": true, "bothSpousesMustSign": true, "attestationConstitutesBindingJointOwnership": true, "supersedesPriorInstruments": true, "annualRecurrenceMaintainsRecency": true, "separatePropertyOption": "file_separately_or_claim_single_threshold" } }, "corporate": { "rateTransition": 0.3, "ratePermanent": 0.28, "transitionYears": 5, "bookMin": 0.15, "bookMinTransitionSurcharge": 0.02, "buybackExcise": 0.04 }, "businessTransitionSurcharge": { "rate": 0.015, "base": "gross_receipts", "transitionYears": 5, "smallBusinessExemption": 25000000, "destination": "general_fund" }, "vat": { "rate": 0.1, "luxuryFromYear1": true, "luxury": { "mode": "marginal-excess", "ratePP": 0.05, "indexation": "CPI-U", "governance": "NSB schedule by rule (published methodology, like the surcharge formula)", "categories": [ { "id": "vehicles", "label": "Vehicles (MSRP)", "floorUSD": 110000, "indexed": true }, { "id": "watches", "label": "Watches", "floorUSD": 3000, "indexed": true }, { "id": "jewelry", "label": "Jewelry & precious stones", "floorUSD": 5000, "indexed": true }, { "id": "art", "label": "Art", "floorUSD": 10000, "indexed": true }, { "id": "boats", "label": "Boats & yachts", "floorUSD": 250000, "indexed": true }, { "id": "aircraft", "label": "Private aircraft", "floorUSD": 500000, "indexed": true } ] }, "phaseSchedule": [ 0, 0.025, 0.05, 0.075, 0.1 ], "corridorMin": 0.08, "corridorMax": 0.12, "preBatePerAdult": 1200, "preBatePerChild": 600, "preBateEnvelopeB": 362, "consumptionPct": [ [ 30000, 0.82 ], [ 60000, 0.72 ], [ 100000, 0.62 ], [ 200000, 0.52 ], [ 400000, 0.42 ], [ 700000, 0.35 ], [ null, 0.3 ] ] }, "carbon": { "startRate": 80, "annualIncrease": 30, "cap": 680, "stipendPerAdult": 700, "stipendPerChild": 350, "ruralUplift": 1.25, "avgHouseholdCarbon": 1800, "carbonPerGallon": 0.71, "heatingCO2": { "none": 0, "heatpump": 1.2, "electric": 2.5, "gas": 5.3, "oil": 6.5 }, "rebateCapPerTon": 160 }, "marl": { "startRatePerTonCH4": 1200, "annualIncrease": 240, "cap": 2880, "intentionalDumpingMultiplier": 5, "sources": [ "Fossil fuel venting + pipeline leakage", "Agricultural enteric fermentation", "Manure management" ], "entericCredits": { "3-NOP (Bovaer)": 0.3, "Asparagopsis seaweed": 0.5, "Rotational grazing": 0.1, "Digesters (manure fraction)": 0.8 }, "perHeadYear1": { "beefFeedlot": 103, "dairy": 138 }, "routing": { "fossil": { "generalFund": 1 }, "agricultural": { "generalFund": 1 } }, "custodyRule": "leak-before-combustion → Methane Accountability and Reduction Levy; combusted → Carbon Fee; reconciled monthly" }, "family": { "ucaFirst": 600, "ucaSecond": 300, "ucaAdditional": 200, "ucaLocaleIndex": { "source": "BEA Regional Price Parities · personal consumption (county-level when available, MSA otherwise)", "capLow": 0.85, "capHigh": 1.25, "examples": [ { "place": "McAllen, TX", "rpp": 86, "index": 0.85, "note": "floor of the band" }, { "place": "rural Mississippi", "rpp": 87, "index": 0.85, "note": "floor" }, { "place": "Cleveland, OH", "rpp": 95, "index": 0.95 }, { "place": "national average", "rpp": 100, "index": 1 }, { "place": "Boston, MA", "rpp": 110, "index": 1.1 }, { "place": "San Jose, CA", "rpp": 121, "index": 1.21 }, { "place": "Manhattan, NY", "rpp": 128, "index": 1.25, "note": "ceiling of the band" } ] }, "ucaAgeIndex": [ { "ageMin": 0, "ageMax": 3, "multiplier": 1.333, "rationale": "First four years — first 1,000 days plus toddler. Diapers, infant care, highest brain-development ROI." }, { "ageMin": 4, "ageMax": 7, "multiplier": 1, "rationale": "Preschool through early elementary. Pre-K childcare overlaps with school onset; nominal rate." }, { "ageMin": 8, "ageMax": 17, "multiplier": 0.87, "rationale": "School-age through adolescence. Skills Wallet, Bridge Year, and Baby Bonds vesting at 18 carry more of the load." } ], "ucaPhaseIn": [ { "year": 1, "multiplier": 0.5 }, { "year": 2, "multiplier": 0.75 }, { "year": 3, "multiplier": 1 } ], "ucaYearByYear": { "1": { "first": 300, "second": 150, "additional": 100 }, "2": { "first": 450, "second": 225, "additional": 150 }, "3": { "first": 600, "second": 300, "additional": 200 } }, "ucaFullDeploymentRevenueB": [ 340, 380 ], "ucaPhaseRationale": "Universal Child Allowance phases over three years to align with childcare-supply expansion in undersupplied regions (the v10.2 Childcare Plan ramp) and to maintain architectural consistency with VAT, payroll tax, Distributed Healthcare, Skills Wallet, and other phased Accord instruments.", "babyBondsBirth": 1000, "babyBondsAt18": 19000, "babyBondsFunding": "General Fund", "vestingStart": 18, "vestingEnd": 21, "skillsWalletAnnual": 1000, "skillsWallet": 20000 }, "institutionalExcise": { "formula": "one-third (charitable) or two-thirds (dynasty-class) of the lower of (2yr, 5yr) trailing real S&P 500 return, floored at zero", "charitableFraction": 0.3333333333333333, "dynastyFraction": 0.6666666666666666, "deemedRealizationOnExcise": true, "distributionTriggersAccessionNoCredit": true, "avgRate": 0.014, "threshold": 5000000, "operatingReserveMonths": 24, "rateFloor": 0, "revenueRange": [ 35000000000, 42000000000 ], "defaultRealReturn": 0.042, "rateExamples": [ { "condition": "Strong bull (sustained 12% real)", "realReturn": 0.12, "rate": 0.04 }, { "condition": "Above average (8% real)", "realReturn": 0.08, "rate": 0.0267 }, { "condition": "Historical average (4.2% real)", "realReturn": 0.042, "rate": 0.014 }, { "condition": "Weak (2% real)", "realReturn": 0.02, "rate": 0.0067 }, { "condition": "Crash / stagnation (≤0%)", "realReturn": 0, "rate": 0 } ], "appliesTo": [ "University endowments", "Private foundations (incl. family-controlled — no separate treatment)", "Religious endowments", "Hospital-system endowments", "Museum endowments", "Other 501(c)(3) investment assets" ], "doesNotApplyTo": [ "Mission-deployed operating assets (campuses, hospitals, houses of worship, equipment)", "Cash within the 24-month operating reserve safe harbor", "Foreign sovereign wealth (outside IRS jurisdiction; addressed via Sec 892 repeal + Financial Transactions Tax + Alliance Incentive)" ], "replaces": [ "Section 4940 private-foundation excise", "Section 4968 endowment excise (with threshold gaming)", "50-year deemed realization on dynasty trusts (rejected as unenforceable)", "EPL inclusion of family-foundation assets (rejected as constitutionally fragile)" ] }, "sec892": { "repealed": true, "withholdingDefault": 0.3, "revenueGross": [ 8000000000, 12000000000 ], "revenueNet": [ 2000000000, 4000000000 ], "note": "Primary value is diplomatic leverage via Alliance Incentive governance framework, not revenue" }, "macroGovernors": { "count": 5, "list": [ "Speculation Brake", "Input Shield", "Healthcare Cost Brake", "Financial Stability", "Debt Sunset Governor" ] }, "fiscal": { "structuralSurplus": 1350000000000, "cyclicalSurplusRange": [ 1000000000000, 1200000000000 ], "debtRetirementYears": [ 50, 50 ], "debt": 39000000000000, "startYear": 2030, "endYear": 2039, "openingPublicDebt": 29500000000000, "openingGrossDebt": 37000000000000, "terminalGDP": 40700000000000, "gdpCAGR": 0.04, "scenarios": { "conservative": { "deployableB": -500, "publicDebtEndB": 53074, "debtFreeYear": 2089, "vhaeBasisB": 6250 }, "central": { "deployableB": 630, "publicDebtEndB": 45931, "debtFreeYear": 2086, "vhaeBasisB": 5900 }, "optimistic": { "deployableB": 3050, "publicDebtEndB": 31886, "debtFreeYear": 2050, "vhaeBasisB": 5550 } }, "capacityStretchYears": 25, "legacyStripB": 310, "dignityFloorCostB": 68, "climateDisbursementB": 130, "roadFeeNetB": 85, "wedgeGFRevenueB": 22, "instExciseActualB": 32, "bottleneckProgramsB": 8.4 }, "immigration": { "annualWorkers": 1750000, "intakeRamp": [ 1000000, 1250000, 1500000, 1750000 ], "minEmployerCost": 41000, "surcharge": { "factors": [ "credentials", "englishScore", "yearsExperience", "ageBand" ], "formulaVersion": "v10.6-indicative", "nsbCalibration": true, "localityNudgeBounds": 0.1, "illustrativePoints": { "shortageSkilled": 0.12, "credentialedTrades": 0.4, "seasonalManual": 0.9 }, "tenureDecline": [ 1, 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.1 ], "workerFloorAnnual": 20800, "domesticShareRule": { "goal": "verify declared wages by revealed preference; balance labor supply and demand; prevent wage suppression", "mechanism": "NSB rule-making — thresholds, measurement, escalation, cadence, and incidence (published, appealable, methodology-audited)", "schematicIllustration": { "minCategoryWorkers": 10, "minDomesticShare": 0.2, "response": "surcharge adjusts for that job category in that community until the domestic share recovers" } } }, "wedgeDestination": "national-pool-by-count-and-need" }, "capi": { "tiers": { "1": { "label": "Fully Aligned", "withholding": 0.1 }, "2": { "label": "Fully Aligned", "withholding": 0.15 }, "3": { "label": "Partner", "withholding": 0.3 }, "4": { "label": "Partially Unaligned", "withholding": 0.3, "note": "enhanced CFIUS/OFAC" }, "5": { "label": "Unaligned", "withholding": 0.3, "note": "enhanced CFIUS/OFAC" } } }, "currentLaw": { "ficaSS": 0.062, "ficaMed": 0.0145, "ficaMedSurcharge": 0.009, "ficaMedSurchargeThreshold": 200000, "ficaSScap": 168600, "capGainsRate": 0.238, "estateRate": 0.4, "estateExemption": 13610000, "avoidanceHigh": 0.4, "avoidanceDynasty": 0.75 }, "healthcare": { "gdpShare": 0.107, "cost": 5900000000000, "costConservative": 6250000000000, "costCentral": 5900000000000, "costOptimistic": 5550000000000, "covered": 330000000 }, "statusQuo": { "ssOasiDepletion": "Q4 2032", "ssOasiPayable": 0.78, "ssOasdiCombinedDepletion": "Q3 2034", "ssOasdiPayable": 0.83, "ssReservesStart2026B": 2560, "ssActuarialDeficitPctPayroll": 4.42, "ssInsolvency": 2032, "ssBenefitCut": 0.78, "medicareInsolvency": 2033, "healthcareGdp": 0.18, "ssCap": 168600, "uninsured": 28000000, "childPoverty": 0.115 }, "naming": { "capiIndex": "Alliance Incentive (global scope)", "alliance": "Accord Alliance", "document": "The New American Accord", "documentShort": "The Accord", "dnaVersion": "v10.8", "versionBanner": "Architecture v10.8 · Scoring v10.8", "compass": "COMPASS", "compassFull": "Community Outcomes Measurement for Prosperity, Accountability, Security, and Sustainability", "censusTractSensors": "Census Tract Sensors", "dcf": "Democratic Capacity Framework", "dcfDomestic": "Civic Response Network", "dcfGlobal": "Alliance Incentive", "fedcard": "FedCard", "vhae": "VHA-E", "distributedHealthcare": "Distributed Healthcare", "tcl": "payroll tax", "uca": "Universal Child Allowance" }, "compass": { "shortageIndicators": [ { "key": "childcare-supply", "label": "Childcare supply / affordability", "domainPrimary": "Demographic Continuity", "domainCross": "Productive Capacity", "structuralGap": "annual cost of full-time infant center care as a fraction of county median family income; desert ≥18% (provisional, pending v10.2 calibration; HHS \"affordable\" benchmark is ≤7%)", "pressureGap": "median waitlist days for infants and toddlers (state-level only at present)", "sources": [ "DOL Women's Bureau — National Database of Childcare Prices (NDCP), county-level, annual", "Bipartisan Policy Center — national gap (14.8M needed / 10.8M slots / 4.2M shortfall, 2025) — context", "Child Care Aware — Mapping the Gap, state-level annual — context" ], "program": "v10.2 Childcare Plan — regional-pool 50/25/25 match (Accord/employer-or-host/family) + federal anchor sites at VA/DoD/USPS/GSA (38 USC 7809) + private leased centers in deserts + FFN navigators (MN 142D.24 model). UCA covers the family 25% share. See CFG.CHILDCARE." }, { "key": "maternity-care-desert", "label": "Maternity-care desert", "domainPrimary": "Flourishing", "domainCross": "Demographic Continuity", "structuralGap": "counties without OB/GYN within 60-minute drive", "pressureGap": "median travel time to nearest hospital with OB delivery", "sources": [ "March of Dimes — Maternity Care Deserts Report (annual; ~36% of US counties, 2024)", "HRSA — HPSA-OB designations" ], "program": "VHA expansion + hospital-takeover + Distributed Healthcare telehealth" }, { "key": "trauma-access-desert", "label": "Trauma-access desert", "domainPrimary": "Flourishing", "domainCross": "Defense Capability", "structuralGap": "counties without Level I/II trauma center within 60-minute drive", "pressureGap": "median EMS-to-trauma-center transport time", "sources": [ "American College of Surgeons — Verified Trauma Centers", "HRSA — EMS data (~25-30% of rural Americans >60 min from trauma center)" ], "program": "Hospital-takeover + capacity-payment for rural ER" }, { "key": "primary-care-hpsa", "label": "Primary-care HPSA", "domainPrimary": "Flourishing", "domainCross": "Productive Capacity", "structuralGap": "HRSA HPSA-PC designation score (composite FTE-to-population ratio)", "pressureGap": "median wait for routine appointment", "sources": [ "HRSA — HPSA-PC designations (~7,400 PC HPSAs covering 100M+)" ], "program": "VHA expansion + Distributed Healthcare telehealth + Skills Wallet primary-care credentialing" }, { "key": "mental-health-hpsa", "label": "Mental-health-provider shortage (HPSA-MH)", "domainPrimary": "Flourishing", "domainCross": "Productive Capacity", "structuralGap": "HRSA HPSA-MH designation score", "pressureGap": "median wait for first appointment with prescribing clinician", "sources": [ "HRSA — HPSA-MH designations (~6,500 covering 169M)" ], "program": "AHQB safe-harbor for MH practice + telehealth + Skills Wallet pathway" }, { "key": "dental-hpsa", "label": "Dental-provider shortage (HPSA-DH)", "domainPrimary": "Flourishing", "domainCross": "Productive Capacity", "structuralGap": "HRSA HPSA-DH designation score", "pressureGap": "median wait for routine dental appointment", "sources": [ "HRSA — HPSA-DH designations" ], "program": "Distributed Healthcare essential floor (dental) + AHQB calibration + telehealth-eligible procedures" }, { "key": "heat-vulnerability", "label": "Heat-vulnerability index", "domainPrimary": "Ecological Solvency", "domainCross": "Flourishing", "structuralGap": "composite of NCEI extreme-heat days, USFS tree-canopy share, ACS age-65+ share, ACS heating-fuel as AC-penetration proxy", "pressureGap": "heat-related ED visit rate per 100K (CDC EPHT)", "sources": [ "NOAA NCEI — county heat-day time series", "USFS — National Land Cover tree-canopy raster", "ACS B25040 — heating fuel (AC penetration proxy)", "ACS B01001 — population aged 65+", "CDC EPHT — heat-related ED visits (pressure metric)" ], "program": "Climate Adaptation Trust — cooling centers, AC weatherization, urban canopy plantings (EPCR-disbursed)" }, { "key": "banking-desert", "label": "Banking desert", "domainPrimary": "Civic Life", "domainCross": "Productive Capacity", "structuralGap": "bank/credit-union branches per 10,000 county residents", "pressureGap": "% of households unbanked or underbanked (FDIC Survey)", "sources": [ "FDIC — Summary of Deposits (annual branch census)", "FDIC — Survey of Household Use of Banking and Financial Services (pressure metric)" ], "program": "Post Office 2.0 — postal banking node + FedCard adoption push" }, { "key": "broadband-desert", "label": "Broadband-access desert", "domainPrimary": "Productive Capacity", "domainCross": "Civic Life", "structuralGap": "% of households without 25/3 Mbps fixed broadband", "pressureGap": "median actually-delivered download speed", "sources": [ "FCC — Broadband Data Collection (BDC)", "USDA — Rural Utilities Service" ], "program": "Infrastructure Decay Fund — broadband line" }, { "key": "transit-job-access", "label": "Transit-job-access shortage", "domainPrimary": "Productive Capacity", "domainCross": "Civic Life", "structuralGap": "% of zero-vehicle households", "pressureGap": "jobs accessible by transit within 30 minutes", "sources": [ "U Minnesota Accessibility Observatory — Access Across America", "American Public Transportation Association", "Federal Transit Administration" ], "program": "Infrastructure Decay Fund — transit" }, { "key": "food-access-desert", "label": "Food-access desert", "domainPrimary": "Civic Life", "domainCross": "Flourishing", "structuralGap": "% of tract population in USDA-defined low-access area", "pressureGap": "median distance to full-service grocery", "sources": [ "USDA ERS — Food Access Research Atlas (~17M people in low-access areas)" ], "program": "Post Office 2.0 storefront / federal hub siting under Community Investment" }, { "key": "affordable-housing-gap", "label": "Affordable-housing gap", "domainPrimary": "Civic Life", "domainCross": "Demographic Continuity", "structuralGap": "cost-burdened renters (>30% of income) as % of total", "pressureGap": "median months on housing-assistance waitlist", "sources": [ "HUD — American Housing Survey (AHS)", "HUD — CHAS" ], "program": "Housing — federal cost-share for affordable construction" }, { "key": "lead-service-line", "label": "Lead service line concentration", "domainPrimary": "Ecological Solvency", "domainCross": "Flourishing", "structuralGap": "% of homes with lead service lines", "pressureGap": "lead-action-level exceedances per year", "sources": [ "EPA — LCRR state inventories (~9M LSLs nationally)", "EPA — SDWIS" ], "program": "Infrastructure Decay Fund — water systems" }, { "key": "local-news-desert", "label": "Local-news desert", "domainPrimary": "Credibility", "domainCross": "Civic Life", "structuralGap": "counties without daily/weekly newspaper or local newsroom", "pressureGap": "news-content production hours per capita", "sources": [ "Northwestern — Local News Initiative", "UNC Hussman — News Deserts Project (~200 counties classified as news deserts; ~1,500 more effectively deserts)" ], "program": "CPB-administered nonprofit newsroom grants + AI/search content stipends + 2:1 matched investigative funding (Civic Life portfolio)" } ] } }, "avoidanceHaircutCitations": [ "Brülhart, Gruber, Krapf & Schmidheiny (2022), 'Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Switzerland', AEJ: Economic Policy 14(4) — reported wealth elasticity ~0.9 per 0.1pp.", "Jakobsen, Jakobsen, Kleven & Zucman (2020), 'Wealth Taxation and Wealth Accumulation: Theory and Evidence from Denmark', QJE 135(1) — long-run elasticities for the very wealthy.", "Seim (2017), 'Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxes: Evidence from Sweden', AEJ: Economic Policy 9(4) — evasion vs real responses at the threshold.", "Alstadsæter, Johannesen & Zucman (2019), 'Tax Evasion and Inequality', AER 109(6) — offshore concentration at the top; motivates the disclosure-window architecture.", "Conservative scenario applies a 35% behavioral-erosion haircut to prepayment/excise bases pending empirical data (see /methodology, Known sensitivities)." ] }