{
  "generated": "2026-09-08",
  "scenario": "central",
  "rule": "ROI gate = discounted benefit-cost ratio > 1.0 at the stated real rate [BILL 2026-07-27]. Average and marginal are never conflated (directive 5); a high average return is never, by itself, authorization to expand a stream. The floor, tail insurance and delivery lines are not ROI-tested by design [BILL 2026-08-05].",
  "years": [
    2036,
    2050,
    2079
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "key": "defense",
      "label": "Defense",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 1401,
        "2050": 2331,
        "2079": 6364
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 3,
      "class": "tail-insurance",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Bought for the tail, not expected value [BILL 2026-08-05]; floored at 3.0% of GDP [BILL 2026-09-06]. Dominance beyond the floor is a separate appropriation Congress prices explicitly.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-05; 2026-09-06]"
    },
    {
      "key": "nondefDiscretionary",
      "label": "Non-defense discretionary",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 1144,
        "2050": 1486,
        "2079": 2553
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 1.91,
      "class": "baseline",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Current-law residual on the CBO shape; declines as the Accord's institutions replace what it funds (register item 2b, no floor ruled).",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[CBO baseline]"
    },
    {
      "key": "otherMandatoryResidual",
      "label": "Other mandatory (net of named displacement)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 1456,
        "2050": 2422,
        "2079": 6611
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 3.12,
      "class": "baseline",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Current-law residual net of named displacement.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[CBO baseline]"
    },
    {
      "key": "ssBenefits",
      "label": "Social Security 2.0 benefits",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 2747,
        "2050": 5238,
        "2079": 19945
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 6.74,
      "class": "floor",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not ROI-tested by design: the retirement floor is a labour-supply instrument for the WORKING generation [BILL 2026-08-05] and deferred compensation, not a transfer.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "Programs must earn their keep; people never have to earn their floor.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-05]"
    },
    {
      "key": "vhaeNetGF",
      "label": "Distributed Healthcare (incremental federal cash)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 6753,
        "2050": 9462,
        "2079": 20862
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 12.18,
      "class": "essential-utility",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 2.3,
        "high": 2.8,
        "basis": "Murphy–Topel: ~2.8× on the marginal health dollar in the post-1970 stock (NBS-1 Addendum A); the public register is prudent management of an essential utility, never 'saving'"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Above the hurdle on the evidence, with the honest caveat that the health-capital flow may have turned negative post-2010 (NBS-1) — the return is to health, not to hospitals.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "The floor itself is not ROI-tested; the DELIVERY design (one payer, four payment methods, the public arm) is.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1]"
    },
    {
      "key": "uca",
      "label": "Universal Child Allowance",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 362,
        "2050": 382,
        "2079": 442
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.49,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.5,
        "high": 2.5,
        "basis": "Family Stability Floor (UCA + Baby Bonds): maternal labour-force participation, child-poverty reduction, stress and health gains — not IQ gains [v10.4 ROI accounting, 2026-05-16]"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Not known. The 2021 CTC expansion (Ananat et al. 2022) and the Canada Child Benefit (Baker, Messacar and Stabile 2023) measure the average effect of a step change, not the return on the last dollar. Adult earnings-substituting cash is the one category the MVPF work puts near the hurdle (0.5–2.0); the UCA is a child instrument and is designed to stay off that category (capability over cash).",
      "gate": "clears-at-low-end",
      "note": "Enhanced for the FIRST child (base $600 against $300 / $200 for later children) and for the EARLY years (ages 0–3 at 1.333×) by design [v10.3]; the enhancement lands the money where the average return is measured highest (the first 1,000 days) [BILL 2026-09-08: justified by its return].",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-05-16 ROI accounting; BILL 2026-09-08 justification]"
    },
    {
      "key": "babyBonds",
      "label": "Baby Bonds (cash outflow from 2048)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 0,
        "2050": 85,
        "2079": 309
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.11,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.5,
        "high": 2.5,
        "basis": "Family Stability Floor class, with the UCA"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Not known; vests at 18–21, so the return is realised a generation out and is measured only in the Baby Bonds pilots' early cohorts.",
      "gate": "clears-at-low-end",
      "note": "$1,000 at birth + $1,000/yr × 18, vesting 18–21.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-05-16]"
    },
    {
      "key": "childcare",
      "label": "Childcare Plan (Capability Core)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 24,
        "2050": 37,
        "2079": 101
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.05,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 4,
        "high": 7,
        "basis": "Capability Core: Perry Preschool, Abecedarian, Nurse-Family Partnership — reduced crime, higher earnings, better health over a lifetime; a PV benefit-cost ratio at 3%, never an IRR"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Falls with scale: the literature measures targeted programmes on the most disadvantaged cohorts; universal delivery at 15M slots is inframarginally lower and is why funding is sized to the gap (4.2M slots), not to the average return.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "The Perry / Heckman numbers apply HERE, not to the whole package [canon].",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-05-16; NBS-1 Heckman discipline 2026-07-27]"
    },
    {
      "key": "education",
      "label": "Education",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 3,
        "2050": 4,
        "2079": 12
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.01,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not established in this repository.",
      "gate": "not-established",
      "note": "The line carries pathway and academy funding; no verified return figure is held. The ROI gate is pending; a line that fails it goes entirely, never 'a bit'.",
      "provenance": "[AI-PROPOSED status, pending workbook]"
    },
    {
      "key": "skillsWallet",
      "label": "Skills Wallet",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 20,
        "2050": 100,
        "2079": 325
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.13,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not established. The wallet is a flat $1,000/yr accrual to a $20,000 cap with no multiplier [v10.4]; the return depends on what is bought with it, which is not yet measured.",
      "gate": "not-established",
      "note": "If the wallet fails the gate it goes entirely (advisor 2026-09-07; Bill: a doctrine result, not a fiscal lever).",
      "provenance": "[AI-PROPOSED status, pending workbook]"
    },
    {
      "key": "communityRails",
      "label": "Community rails (Civic Response Network)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 148,
        "2050": 165,
        "2079": 165
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.21,
      "class": "delivery",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Delivery capacity (the Civic Response Network); its return is the return of what it delivers.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[canon: delivery layer is the core of the claim, BILL 2026-08-04]"
    },
    {
      "key": "dcfCompass",
      "label": "COMPASS / National Statistics Board",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 4,
        "2050": 7,
        "2079": 20
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.01,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 8,
        "high": 8,
        "basis": "R&D / measurement class, NBS-1 Addendum B: research ~8×"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Not known for statistical measurement specifically; COMPASS is the instrument that makes every other line's return measurable, which is the case for it.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "COMPASS / National Statistics Board.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1 B]"
    },
    {
      "key": "adminOps",
      "label": "Administrative operations",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 55,
        "2050": 91,
        "2079": 248
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.12,
      "class": "delivery",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Administrative operations; governed by the consolidation discipline (every gram of administrative weight that does not contribute to outcome is stripped).",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[directive 7, internal]"
    },
    {
      "key": "infrastructureBacklog",
      "label": "Infrastructure backlog (GF ledger)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 35,
        "2050": 118,
        "2079": 84
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.15,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 1.7,
        "basis": "Bom–Ligthart output-elasticity band (0.083 / 0.122 / 0.200), NBS-1 Addendum B: infrastructure ~1.7× at the low end"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "The elasticity band IS the marginal statement: 0.083 at the low end. LEVEL effects only, never growth-rate claims.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "0.45% of GDP floor for the horizon [BILL 2026-09-08]; the ASCE backlog clearance claim is REOPENED (fiscal reset step 1).",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1 B]"
    },
    {
      "key": "infrastructureFloorTopUp",
      "label": "Infrastructure statutory floor top-up",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 160,
        "2050": 182,
        "2079": 834
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.23,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 1.7,
        "basis": "infrastructure class (Bom–Ligthart band); the top-up is the part of the 0.45%-of-GDP floor the named programmes do not reach"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "The floor runs for the horizon [BILL 2026-09-08]; the marginal dollar is the elasticity band's low end, 0.083, stated as a level effect.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "Statutory floor top-up, seamless — never interrupted at the end of the buildout.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-17 floor; BILL 2026-09-08 horizon]"
    },
    {
      "key": "gridHardening",
      "label": "Grid hardening (GF share)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 15,
        "2050": 50,
        "2079": 36
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.06,
      "class": "investment",
      "averageReturn": {
        "low": 1.7,
        "high": 1.7,
        "basis": "infrastructure class; the Black-Sky grid case is cause-of-need GF (Two-Ledger Principle)"
      },
      "marginalReturn": "Partly tail insurance (grid failure) — the expected-value return understates it.",
      "gate": "clears",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 NBS-1 B; Two-Ledger canon]"
    },
    {
      "key": "dignityFloor",
      "label": "SS Dignity Floor supplement",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 17,
        "2050": 32,
        "2079": 87
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.04,
      "class": "floor",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Insurance-class; not ROI-tested.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "$1,150/mo for 30-year contributors, ~$13B/yr.",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-07-27 adult-transfer doctrine]"
    },
    {
      "key": "transitionCosts",
      "label": "Transition & implementation costs (Yrs 1–8)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 112,
        "2050": 0,
        "2079": 0
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0,
      "class": "delivery",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "One-time standup, Years 1–8.",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[canon]"
    },
    {
      "key": "targetedOutflows",
      "label": "Targeted outflows (Energy Stipend pool etc.)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 268,
        "2050": 447,
        "2079": 1219
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.57,
      "class": "pass-through",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Pass-through (the Energy Stipend pool and the Employer Parity community draw): collected to be returned, not budgeted as spending, so it carries no return of its own [directive 12]. The stipend is transitional and ends as households convert [BILL 2026-09-08].",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[directive 12; BILL 2026-09-08]"
    },
    {
      "key": "oblCalibration",
      "label": "Obligation calibration (±)",
      "totalsB": {
        "2036": 267,
        "2050": 410,
        "2079": 1004
      },
      "pctGdp2050": 0.53,
      "class": "calibration",
      "averageReturn": null,
      "marginalReturn": "Not a programme: the obligation-side calibration residual, retired as each line is derived from its own ledger (fiscal reset step 1).",
      "gate": "not-tested-by-design",
      "note": "",
      "provenance": "[BILL 2026-08-10 fiscal reset]"
    }
  ],
  "unregistered": []
}